Sports Arbitrage Discussion Forum - What will move first...Asians or the Exchanges?

Landprofits Junior Member Posts: 65 Reputation: 0	What will move first...Asians or the Exchanges? « on: Feb 8^th, 2010, 2:59am » OK so various factors will cause a line to move, but when they do, which will move first, the Asians or the Exchanges? Or perhaps they are more or less in line?
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Bastiano God Member Posts: 530 Reputation: 4 Gender:	Re: What will move first...Asians or the Exchanges « Reply #1 - on: Feb 8^th, 2010, 4:33am » Depands from whre the information comes first. There are strong asian forums and tipster sites, i guess it will move asians first. If something is happening in Europe, it will move the BF first.
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Landprofits Junior Member Posts: 65 Reputation: 0	Re: What will move first...Asians or the Exchanges « Reply #2 - on: Feb 8^th, 2010, 5:13am » Thanks Bastiano
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nikos Global Moderator Posts: 1598 Reputation: 17 Gender:	Re: What will move first...Asians or the Exchanges « Reply #3 - on: Feb 8^th, 2010, 7:59am » Asians move the lines first. The question is, who is the first among the asians that will kove the line? None of the big 4 i believe.
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Landprofits Junior Member Posts: 65 Reputation: 0	Re: What will move first...Asians or the Exchanges « Reply #4 - on: Feb 8^th, 2010, 8:13am » Thanks for the reply Nikos Quote: Asians move the lines first. The question is, who is the first among the asians that will kove the line? None of the big 4 i believe. Any particular reason why this is the case? Due to the popularity of Gambling in Asia perhaps?
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nikos
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Re: What will move first...Asians or the Exchanges
« Reply #5 - on: Feb 8^th, 2010, 9:28am »

Not exactly. There are many reasons.
First of all let me say, that here in Europe, we recognize as Asians the big 4 (188, Sbo, ibcbet, 12). This is not really the case, since there are other big underground bookmakers targeting Asia. These bookmakers are not covered by our alert services. There are alert services in Asia, targeting Asian clients, offering lines only from asian bookmakers. It is something very similar with SBR lines. In SBR lines they are focused on CR books. In these alert services that i m refering, they offer only asian lines.
Now let me tell you about the UEFA factor. As you probably all know, a football player, the owner of a team, a ref, and all people inside or around football, are not allowed to bet. UEFA is cooperating with a couple of companies/institutes. Their job is to find out if a ''red'' name is betting somewhere. It would be silly for a goalkeeper to bet on Betfair. Very silly. Even though, we heard in the past some very big names betting against their teams. They became cover pages. UEFAs radar is not capable enough to get these underground bookmakers. Probably they cant even get the big 4, but i suppose that if 188 and Sbo is marketing hard in the UK, someone has to regulate them. Now what about the rest? So, as you can understand, all football world is betting on the underground market.
There are rings, where info is released. If you are in the first ring, you bet straight. If you are on the 2nd, 3rd or whatever, you have to arb. You have the info, but you are not sure about it. So what can you do? The only thing you can do, is take advantage of the line move. Better this, than nothing.
In these bookmakers you can bet hard, very hard. Sbo could take a bet of 1mn 3 years back. Not any more. I m not telling you that there is a bookmaker taking this size of bets, but believe me, there are higher limits than thsese 25k of 188bet.
Also, let me inform you that some of those bookmakers are changing names and https every month. Even if you know shanghai888 now, next month it will be crown888, or FrankSinatrabet.
The lines originate in asia every monday, and they move according to the vibes that come frm Asia.
Also, these tipsters are based in Singapore and HK mainly. Their clients are also asians mainly. So that counts too.

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Jontheman
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Re: What will move first...Asians or the Exchanges
« Reply #6 - on: Feb 8^th, 2010, 12:49pm »

Interesting stuff Nikos. Much like the Indian bookmakers in cricket I continue to wonder what proportion of the "Asian underground books taking bets in the millions" is true, and what is hype/chinese whispers. There is obviously some sort of market going on but I doubt it would be as large as some of the more spectacular claims I've read.

I would add that things are different for other sports. In some it is clearly Betfair that moves the line (although bookmakers consensus will have originally set it). In horse-racing it is arguably still the on-course ring bookmakers (note that these include the big betting chains) - all this guff about BF leading the market there is just because bookies will use it to lay off risk so the odds moves are a reflection of big bets that have been taken elsewhere.

There is even one sport I have identified where spread-betting (and actually one particular company) seems to be the primary market-mover with fixed odds following in its tails.

In other words - it all depends.

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"It is a decadence to become a gambler, when you've been a great arber." Nikos, 2009

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Bastiano
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Re: What will move first...Asians or the Exchanges
« Reply #7 - on: Feb 8^th, 2010, 4:20pm »

If all odd-lines originate in Asia (mostlly soccer), what is the ruole of a Sportradar AG? As I know they doo a live support for bookies with livescouting. Their service for bookies is also making early odds.

Nikos interesant point about underground bookies, but how do they operate? Are they visible on net, and wich tipsters doo follow or tip these bookies. 2nd and 3rd cicle are verry usefull for trading if you know what will they bet on, and how will it influence the "legal" market.

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ElectroArb Senior Member Posts: 383 Reputation: 3 Gender:	Re: What will move first...Asians or the Exchanges « Reply #8 - on: Feb 8^th, 2010, 10:33pm » a trader told me his english book uses betradar for help with prices
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topodds
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Re: What will move first...Asians or the Exchanges
« Reply #9 - on: Feb 8^th, 2010, 11:03pm »

betradar supports over 350 online books as of 3 months ago,also as horseracing and gambling(legal stuff)is 8% of HK gdp the hk jockey club markets are huge as is their racing markets with out doubt the biggest in the world(legal) and there illegal market is also probarbly the biggest to the US illegal market.I think you will find this is where the money is not in the EU.The mug EU punter on $200 per month is a part of the market for sure but just making up the numbers.The uk punter (70million) on $3000 month is ok,the HK market huge!

nikos what are the asian alert services you refer too? corporate or customer based?

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Jontheman
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Re: What will move first...Asians or the Exchanges
« Reply #10 - on: Feb 9^th, 2010, 1:48am »

This is a bit OT but... Although there are some poorer countries in the EU, TopOdds I don't know why you think an average wage might be $200/month? Poland isn't exactly wealthy but the minimum wage is about 1300 Zl (over $400) and the average salary is 3 times higher. UK, Germany and France (all EU countries) average obviously far higher.

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nikos
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Re: What will move first...Asians or the Exchanges
« Reply #11 - on: Feb 9^th, 2010, 7:17am »

@jontheman
I really dont know what is the highest stake that a bookmaker could take. I dont believe it is 1 mn, but i suppose 100-200k would be ok, depending on odds etc.
Definitely, BF is the leader on horses. And also, the asians are very small for american markets.
There are many whispers in the market. 10 days ago, there was a ''scandal'' about fixxed games all over the planet and bla bla bla. It turned out the be distorted fantasy of someone.
@Bastiano
Yes you can find them in the Internet.The only thing that tpsters do, is to suggest outcomes. The clients will choose where to play.
@topodds
Both.

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ElectroArb Senior Member Posts: 383 Reputation: 3 Gender:	Re: What will move first...Asians or the Exchanges « Reply #12 - on: Feb 9^th, 2010, 8:14am » what about people who are employed to place football bets for wealthy punters. they are more likey to spread a large bet over several of the best priced bookies (a job an arber could carry out quite efficiently)
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topodds
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Re: What will move first...Asians or the Exchanges
« Reply #13 - on: Feb 9^th, 2010, 8:07pm »

Commision agents are what you are reffering to,as an example an australian race that has $2million in the national pool(tabs) will in fact have up to 60 times that amount bet on course with bookies and commision agents(1000s around every state in the country),then on top of that you have the other corporates eg IAS Centrebet Betezy etc etc etc etc etc then after that you have Betfair then after that you have the illegal SP bookies then after that the HK market that bets on the same aust race(enormous and the biggest of all these put togehter)then you have there illegal market then on top of all of that the internationals online!.

So with all that said betfair is a good market but at least in Aust races very small in the whole picture.UK racing and other o/seas racing that might be different i dont know but HK and Aust racing its definetly not the case.

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Landprofits
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Re: What will move first...Asians or the Exchanges
« Reply #14 - on: Feb 10^th, 2010, 5:30am »

Well that certainly sparked an interesting thread...

Speaking of commission agents, one such company who offers a service described the cost as "a small percentage fee on the overall stake for the use of this specialist and labour intensive facility!

Labour intensive huh? So basically you're paying a fee for having people run around and place your bets.........?

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