Sports Arbitrage Discussion Forum - Odds On Tipping Comp 2010

Jontheman Global Moderator Posts: 1628 Reputation: 17 Gender:	Re: Odds On Tipping Comp 2010 « Reply #30 - on: Mar 9^th, 2010, 9:34am » Wigan-4 LOSE=-8 Salford LOSE=-5 HullKR+6.5 -105 WIN = +7.6 Weekly = -5.4 Bank= 89.5 W/L=6/8. Can't believe Wigan blew a 20 point lead simply by not concentrating - painful to watch when your money is on it, and the difference between being back in profit and further in the hole. Still, not long to Cheltenham!!
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Jontheman Global Moderator Posts: 1628 Reputation: 17 Gender:	Re: Odds On Tipping Comp 2010 « Reply #31 - on: Mar 12^th, 2010, 5:47am » HullFC+8.5 10/11 vs Wigan 6 points
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Jontheman Global Moderator Posts: 1628 Reputation: 17 Gender:	Re: Odds On Tipping Comp 2010 « Reply #32 - on: Mar 12^th, 2010, 2:15pm » Warri -8 10/11 vs Bradford 8 points Cas +8 10/11 vs Catalans 8 points Leeds-4 10/11 vs Hudd 5.5 points
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Jontheman Global Moderator Posts: 1628 Reputation: 17 Gender:	Re: Odds On Tipping Comp 2010 « Reply #33 - on: Mar 14^th, 2010, 12:57pm » HullFC LOSE = -6 Cas+8 win = +7.3 Warri-8 win = +7.3 Leeds-4 LOSE = -5.5 Weekly net = +3.1 Bank = 92.6; W/L = 8/10. Another crap week I was at the Hudd/Leeds game and the rhinos dropped the ball 3 times with the tryline begging. Muppets.
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Fav Senior Member Posts: 316 Reputation: 3 Gender:	Re: Odds On Tipping Comp 2010 « Reply #34 - on: Mar 14^th, 2010, 6:03pm » i've missed a little bit here. is there any prize pull or buy-ins in competition ?) anyway want to join)
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Jontheman Global Moderator Posts: 1628 Reputation: 17 Gender:	Re: Odds On Tipping Comp 2010 « Reply #35 - on: Mar 15^th, 2010, 1:14pm » Prize is much kudos and unlimited bragging rights for 1 year. Just start with 100 points and away you go (shouldn't be hard to beat me at least) I do it mainly as an easy way to record my bets, statistics and progress with rugby and keep myself "honest" about my limited abilities.
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Jontheman Global Moderator Posts: 1628 Reputation: 17 Gender:	Re: Odds On Tipping Comp 2010 « Reply #36 - on: Mar 18^th, 2010, 12:40pm » A few promising lines at this stage but only one needs to be hammered... Hudd win-12 10/11 16 points vs London
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Jontheman
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Re: Odds On Tipping Comp 2010
« Reply #37 - on: Mar 19^th, 2010, 9:56am »

Crusaders-4 10/11 vs Cats 8 points
HullFC-4.5 1.96 vs Bradford 10 points

Since I'm home early today I'll add a few words.

All the -12.5 is gone on Hudd. I'd still take the -14.5. I had the match handicapped at -20 (and I was at the Hudd/Leeds game last week to assess them properly). Huddersfield's famous smothering defence I can't see allowing more than 6 points against London - they're the only team to hold Warri to under 20 this season, and have shut out two teams (both of whom have 50% or better records). London's pop-gun attack will need a lot of luck to score at all. It's really just a bet on how many Hudd can score, and with the halfbacks trying to impress with the imminent arrival of Brough...

Catalans have huge problems. All 3 of their specialist halfbacks are injured, as well as their attacking pivot (fullback Greenshields). You'd think it would bring their camp together, but players are asking to leave (Mogg - apparently suddenly homesick for Oz after just the 6 years away). Discipline is atrocious and concerns here are making the defence tentative. The fact that Crusaders are on a -ve h/cap at all is testament to the work Noble and the team has done. They have a decent attacking threat (notably Mellars under the bombs) and an excellent goal kicker (Witt). Defence is not too far off with Chan being an absolute tackling machine leading the way.

HullFC - the price alone was too tempting to pass up (gone now - I took it all). Bradford's much vaunted halfback/hooker threesome have only really clicked for 40 minutes all season (when they beat Wigan). Fortunately it was in front of the Skysports cameras in a memorable comeback and is continuing to distort their price. Bradford+8 would be about right, with Hull's home form very decent and Bradford struggling away to even beat Salford and that's after I gave Bradford a bonus for having a very settled team. Bradford's centres seriously lack the ability to penetrate defences. A Hull defeat away to a very strong Wigan (look at the league table) playing well last time out shouldn't be too much of a concern.

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Jontheman
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Re: Odds On Tipping Comp 2010
« Reply #38 - on: Mar 21^st, 2010, 4:04am »

Wigan-8.5 10/11 vs Cas 6 points.

Cas have desparate home form, while Wigan have gone away to Warrington this season and won. Last week's scratchy win for Cas against a Catalans side with massive problems convinced nobody and included a shocking first half performance - a repeat here would see them 20-30 points down at half time. Brent Sherwin is a high-quality field general, but just at the moment he is playing really poorly. Disruption to the backline continues with Ainscough unable to play against his former club. Wigan's forwards have improved massively from last season. Fielden has stopped his habit of dropping the ball whenever he touches it; Joel Tomkins has changed from a village idiot to a proper Superleague player and O'Loughlin continues to be exceptional. Phelps still working his way back to fitness, but his return after a few weeks break adds a massive attacking threat, and with Amos Roberts still in great form they should be looking for ways to spin the ball to the wing. Pat Richards is unmatched for Goal Line Drops and Goal-kicking right now.

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Fav Senior Member Posts: 316 Reputation: 3 Gender:	Re: Odds On Tipping Comp 2010 « Reply #39 - on: Mar 21^st, 2010, 4:29am » Jon, does bets like Chievo draw @2.00betfair (current price) qualify for this challenge? i mean steamed but with currnet price bets
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Jontheman
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Re: Odds On Tipping Comp 2010
« Reply #40 - on: Mar 21^st, 2010, 5:46am »

Quote from Fav on Mar 21^st, 2010, 4:29am:

Jon, does bets like Chievo draw @2.00betfair (current price) qualify for this challenge? i mean steamed but with currnet price bets

Last year there was a "gentleman's agreement" that we wouldn't bet obvious fixes. Otherwise I'd be on the draw today on Chievo and Agrotikos. However, what you choose to bet is up to you.

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Fav
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Re: Odds On Tipping Comp 2010
« Reply #41 - on: Mar 21^st, 2010, 6:08am »

Quote from Jontheman on Mar 21^st, 2010, 5:46am:

Quote from Fav on Mar 21^st, 2010, 4:29am:

Jon, does bets like Chievo draw @2.00betfair (current price) qualify for this challenge? i mean steamed but with currnet price bets

Last year there was a "gentleman's agreement" that we wouldn't bet obvious fixes. Otherwise I'd be on the draw today on Chievo and Agrotikos. However, what you choose to bet is up to you.

i'm on that both too ))) . my idea is that chievo is not an obvious fix cos if it is every one on this forum put his bankroll for a draw on bf and easylly double up it. but noone wont do that cos it's not really obvious Wink

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Jontheman Global Moderator Posts: 1628 Reputation: 17 Gender:	Re: Odds On Tipping Comp 2010 « Reply #42 - on: Mar 21^st, 2010, 10:49am » Hudd win-12 10/11 16 points WIN = +14.6 Crusaders win-4 10/11 8 points WIN = +7.3 HullFC-4.5 1.96 10 points WIN = +9.6 Wigan-8.5 10/11 6 points WIN = +5.5 Weekly: 4/4 Bank = +37 Overall: W/L 12/10; Bank = 129.6 Weekly 4/4 means that it's time for another of these. Superleague odds compliers, you got....
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Jontheman Global Moderator Posts: 1628 Reputation: 17 Gender:	Re: Odds On Tipping Comp 2010 « Reply #43 - on: Mar 25^th, 2010, 3:01pm » Only two early bet this time where odds are out of line, although 2 more matches look very promising and I'll be waiting for more lines to come out... Wakey win+16 10/11 vs Warrington. 8 points HullFC-8.5 1.85 vs Salford. 8 points.
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Jontheman
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Re: Odds On Tipping Comp 2010
« Reply #44 - on: Mar 26^th, 2010, 8:29am »

Wigan win-6 10/11 vs Leeds 15 points. (Yes 10/11 is still out there now if you know where to look; 5/6 is still a good bet)

Don't like betting against my own team but this line is miles off; -12 was my estimate. Leeds are missing their best forward; their best organiser is on a fitness test (and he's not the only one). Most worryingly they are still having to play a rookie winger. Look back at the 1st half of the Wigan-Bradford game to see how effective Wigan were in exploiting a similar weakness on that occasion - they won't lose their heads at half-time at home. Leeds are a mid-table team on current form - the table doesn't lie - and have shown no signs of revival (although they have too strong a team not to improve at some point)

Wigan's home form is awesome - they have dished out a series of spankings and their "closest" game was a 24-point win where they conceeded 2 tries once the game was over! Pile on.

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